Monday, April 30, 2007

Is Frankie really worse in the 8th inning?

For some reason, I always worry when the Angels bring in Francisco Rodriguez in the 8th inning.  I had the same worry when they brought Troy Percival in the 8th inning and I guess that's where my Frankie worries stem from.  As always, I'm looking for stats to support or discount my theory.

Here are Frankie's career numbers in the 8th & 9th innings:

        BAA  OPS
8th    .201 .599        
9th    .184 .591
Career .181 .566


The difference is negligible. The 8th inning numbers are a little worse.  I think it's more of a perceived difference.  When Frankie comes in during the 8th inning, there are usually runners on base with impending doom.  When he comes in during the 9th inning it's usually to start the 9th inning with the bases empty.

I also realize that these career numbers are askew since he was used as a setup man for his first couple of years.  So maybe his bad 8th innings have occurred since 2005 when he became the closer.

        BAA  OPS
8th    .208 .500 (24 batters faced)
9th    .190 .611 (486 batters faced)


So it looks like these fears are unfounded.

Now I'm wondering if Troy Percival was really worse in the 8th inning or not.

        BAA  OPS
8th    .162 .600 (343 batters faced)
9th    .196 .612 (1932 batters faced)


Again the statistics disprove my fears. I guess it just goes to show that I don't know a thing. Neither reliever is worse in the 8th inning, they just come in when things are going bad so when they allow a hit, it's significance is magnified.

Well, I still believe that Frankie shouldn't pitch when the Angels are behind or tied, but that's a post for a different day.

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