Ending the game on a caught stealing

Should Aybar attempt to steal second base?

Situation: Two outs in the 9th inning, Angels down one run, Erick Aybar on first base, Howie Kendrick (4 for 4 on the day: 1 double 3 singles) at the plate.

In the days before the internet, this question could be made into a long math problem and be debated for hours. Now I just go to Mr. Google and ask him for help. I found the help on an old espn article.

They showed a "run expectation table" from the entire 2000 season. The table tells us, for each of the 24 possible bases/outs situations, the average number of runs that score from that situation.

     Bases           Outs
               0     1     2
     empty   0.57  0.31  0.12
       1st   0.97  0.60  0.27
       2nd   1.18  0.73  0.33
  1st, 2nd   1.63  1.01  0.48
       3rd   1.52  1.00  0.41
  1st, 3rd   1.92  1.24  0.52
  2nd, 3rd   2.05  1.50  0.64
1st, 2nd, 3rd 2.54  1.70  0.82

To correctly use these numbers, we have to assume that we have an average runner on first and average hitters batting and on deck. To solve our problem we need a base stealing number. Last year, the Angels as a team were successful stealing 72% of the time.

Now some quick computations.

1. Aybar does not attempt to steal
Angels score .27 runs
(100% safe not stealing * .27 runs from table)

2. Aybar is thrown out stealing
Angels score 0.00 runs
(28% thrown out * 0 runs)

3. Aybar steals second base
Angels score .24 runs
(72% safe stealing * .33 runs from table)

So, the best option is to not steal. At least when you're considering the average players in the average situation.

Let the debate begin....facts for your personal argument

• Aybar is a lousy base stealer. He averaged over 35 sb per year in 5 minor league seasons, but was successful only 65% of the time.
• Kendrick was 4 for 4 on the day (4 doubles & 3 singles)
• Cleveland's pitcher, Joe Borowski, had allowed two hits to four batters he had faced.
• The table shows average runs, not the chance of getting one run to tie the game.