The New Road Record Conspiracy Theory

I love a good conspiracy theory and here's the latest. The Angels are a pathetic 3-8 on the road this season and I have a new theory of why that might be.

Here's the breakdown of their road games this season with date, opponent, score & TV announcing team.

Apr 10 @ CLE L 6-7 Phys & Hud
Apr 11 @ CLE W 4-1 Phys & Hud
Apr 12 @ CLE L 2-4 Phys & Hud
Apr 13 @ BOS L 1-10 Phys & Hud
Apr 14 @ BOS L 0-8 National Fox
Apr 16 @ BOS L 2-7 Phys & Hud
Apr 17 @ OAK L 1-4 Phys & Hud
Apr 18 @ OAK L 0-3 Phys & Hud
Apr 27 @ CWS L 3-7 Mota & Gubi
Apr 28 @ CWS W 3-0 Mota & Gubi
Apr 29 @ CWS W 5-2 Mota & Gubi

Now let's break it down by announcing team

Mota & Gubi  2-1 .667
Phys & Hud   1-6 .143
National Fox 0-1 .000

As you can see, the Angels clearly play their best baseball when the TV announcing team is Jose Mota & Mark Gubicza. Let the "Fire Phys & Hud" campaign begin!

Is Frankie really worse in the 8th inning?

For some reason, I always worry when the Angels bring in Francisco Rodriguez in the 8th inning.  I had the same worry when they brought Troy Percival in the 8th inning and I guess that's where my Frankie worries stem from.  As always, I'm looking for stats to support or discount my theory.

Here are Frankie's career numbers in the 8th & 9th innings:

        BAA  OPS
8th    .201 .599        
9th    .184 .591
Career .181 .566

The difference is negligible. The 8th inning numbers are a little worse.  I think it's more of a perceived difference.  When Frankie comes in during the 8th inning, there are usually runners on base with impending doom.  When he comes in during the 9th inning it's usually to start the 9th inning with the bases empty.

I also realize that these career numbers are askew since he was used as a setup man for his first couple of years.  So maybe his bad 8th innings have occurred since 2005 when he became the closer.

        BAA  OPS
8th    .208 .500 (24 batters faced)
9th    .190 .611 (486 batters faced)

So it looks like these fears are unfounded.

Now I'm wondering if Troy Percival was really worse in the 8th inning or not.

        BAA  OPS
8th    .162 .600 (343 batters faced)
9th    .196 .612 (1932 batters faced)

Again the statistics disprove my fears. I guess it just goes to show that I don't know a thing. Neither reliever is worse in the 8th inning, they just come in when things are going bad so when they allow a hit, it's significance is magnified.

Well, I still believe that Frankie shouldn't pitch when the Angels are behind or tied, but that's a post for a different day.

Erstad feasts on Halo pitching

After 11 seasons with the Angels, Darin Erstad signed with the Chicago White Sox in the offseason. When the Angels went to Chicago this week, it was Erstad's first time playing his old team. Naturally he said that it was just another game, blah, blah, blah, but we all know he wanted to stick it to the Halos. And he did.

Erstad in 2007

	H/AB	HR	RBI	AVG	OPS
vs Angels	6/12	1	3	.500	1.372
vs All Others	17/76	1	8	.224	.580

Erstad and the White Sox will be in Anaheim next week so we'll see if he continues his hot hitting.

O Monkey, Where Art Thou?

One thing's for sure about the start of the 2007 season: if it ends in a World Championship, it won't look anything like 2002.

The Angels' record this year when they fall behind by 2 or more runs at any point in the game is 0-11. Conversly, when they jump out to an early lead, their record is 12-0, so all hope is not lost. The fat lady (Mo Vaughn) warms up early when the Angels take the field this year, especially on the road.

Much has been made of the lack of offense when the team struggles, but the stats don't necessarily bear this out. The Angels have scored 102 runs this year and are averaging 4.43 runs per game, compared to their opponents' 99 runs and 4.30 runs per game. This is about what you'd expect from a 12-11 club. If the team can't figure out how to put it together on the road, the Angels may be looking at an 81 win season.

Unless the AL West follows the pattern of last year's NL West, that won't be enough to make the playoffs. Maybe the Rally Monkey needs to pack more potassium in his sack lunch on those road trips.

Down On The Farm 4/27/07

Just a quick look at the Angels' Top Prospects

Player          Pos Age Lg    H/AB  AVG   OPS  MISC
Jeff Mathis       C  24 AAA  23/68 .338  .893  0 errors
Terry Evans      OF  25 AAA  23/71 .324  .941  3hr, 5sb, 0cs
Kendry Morales   1B  23 AAA  17/56 .304  .720  1hr, 9rbi
Sean Rodriguez   SS  22 AA   21/65 .323 1.043  4hr, 9 rbi
Bradley Coon     OF  24 A+   30/83 .361  .863  13sb, 5cs
Hank Conger       C  19 A    14/55 .255  .675  2hr, 4sb

Player          Pos Age Lg   IP   W-L   ERA  MISC
Jason Bulger     RP  28 AAA  9.1  1-1  3.86  10k/9bb
Joe Saunders     SP  25 AAA  6.2  0-0  4.05  1.05whip
Greg Jones       RP  30 AAA  7.1  1-0  6.14  7k/2bb
Nick Adenhart    SP  20 AA  26.2  3-1  1.01  23k/9bb
Brok Butcher     SP  23 A+  27.1  2-1  0.99  1cg, 1.10 whip
Stephen Marek    SP  23 A+  10.0  1-0  1.80  6k, 1.00 whip
Sean O'Sullivan  SP  19 A   16.0  0-2  4.50  11k

The hype surrounding Brandon Wood

Baseball America ranks Brandon Wood as the 8th best prospect in the Majors this year. I'm not sure what this means. Is he a future Hall of Famer, All-Star or just a starter?

So to try and figure out what his future holds, I decided to look back at the other #8's in Baseball America's lists since they began in 1990.

What's interesting is that they are all pretty average players. So I guess we're looking at Wood becoming an everyday 3rd Baseman or Shortstop with one All-Star Game Appearance.

Update: In the comments, Mat asked "But how many of those #8s were 22 when they got the vote?" I added the age of each player at the time of the rankings. 22 years old is far and away the most common age for a prospect at #8.

19 years old (1)
20 years old (1)
21 years old (3)
22 years old (7)
23 years old (3)
24 years old (1)
29 years old (1)

Here's the list of #8's.

1990 Eric Anthony, of, Age 22
Astros, Mariners, Reds, Rockies, Dodgers
retired 9 seasons .231 avg, .702 ops,
Best Season 1992 .239 avg, 19 hr, 80 rbi

1991 Reggie Sanders, of, Age 23
Reds, Padres, Braves, Diamondbacks, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, Royals
Currently with Kansas City in his 17th season.
Career .267 avg, .831 ops, 305 hr, 304 sb
Best Season 1995 .306 avg .975 ops, 28 hr 99 rbi 36 sb
Won World Series with Arizona in 2001
1 All Star Appearance - 1995

1992 Ryan Klesko, 1b, Age 21
Braves, Padres, Giants
Currently with San Francisco in his 16th season
Career .280 avg, .878 ops, 272 hr
Best Season: 2001 .286 avg 30 hr 113 rbi 23 sb
Won World Series with Atlanta in 1995
1 All Star Appearance - 2001

1993 Jason Bere, rhp, Age 22
White Sox, Reds, Brewers, Indians, Cubs
Retired 11 seasons 5.14 era 71-65
Best Season: 1994 12-2 3.81 era 127 k
1 All Star Appearance - 1994

1994 James Baldwin, rhp, Age 22
White Sox, Dodgers, Mariners, Twins< style="color: rgb(102, 51, 255);">Best Season: 2000 14-7 4.65 era 116 k
1 All Star Appearances - 2000

1995 Alex Gonzalez, ss, Age 22
Blue Jays, Cubs, Expos, Padres, Devil Rays, Phillies
Retired 13 seasons .243 avg .693 ops
Best Season: 2003 .228 avg 20 hr

1996 Livan Hernandez, rhp, Age 21
Marlins, Giants, Expos, Nationals, Diamondbacks
Currently with Arizona in his 12th season
Career: 123-117 4.18 era
Best Season: 2000 17-11 3.75 era 165 k
Won World Series with Florida in 1997 (NLCS MVP, WS MVP)
2 All Star Appearances - 2004, 2005
*Started and lost Game 7 of the 2002 World Series for the Giants vs the Angels.

1997 Kris Benson, rhp, Age 22
Pirates, Mets, Orioles
Currently with Baltimore out all season with a torn rotator cuff
Career: 7 seasons 68-73, 4.34 era
Best Season: 2000 10-12, 3.85 era 184k
Most famous for his wife's (Anna Benson) quote on Howard Stern: "I told (Kris) , cheat on me all you want. If you get caught, I'm going to screw everybody on your entire team -- coaches, trainers, players. I would do everybody on his whole team." (source)

1998 Travis Lee, 1b, Age 23
Diamondbacks, Phillies, Devil Rays, Yankees
Retired: .256 avg .745 ops
Best Season: 2001 .258 avg 20 hr 90 rbi

1999 Pablo Ozuna, ss, Age 24
Marlins, Rockies, White Sox
Currently with Chicago White Sox in his 6th season
Career: .292 avg .703 ops
Best Season: 2006 .328 avg in 189 ab
Won World Series with Chicago White Sox in 2005

2000 Rafael Furcal, ss, Age 22
Braves, Dodgers
Currently with Dodgers in his 8th season
Career: .285 avg .762 ops
Best Season: 2003 .292 avg 15 hr 130 r 25 sb
1 All Star Appearances - 2003

2001 Ryan Anderson, lhp, Age 21
No Major League Experience
Career ended with multiple shoulder injuries.
Currently in culinary school. (source)

2002 Wilson Betemit, ss, Age 20
Braves, Dodgers
Currently with Dodgers in his 5th season
Career: .262 avg .746 ops
Best Season: 2006 .263 avg 18 hr 53 rbi in 373 ab

2003 Hideki Matsui, of, Age 29
Yankees
Currently with Yankees in his 5th season
Career: .297 avg .856 ops
Best Season: 2004 .298 avg 31 hr 108 rbi 109 r
2 All Star Appearances - 2003, 2004

2004 Greg Miller lhp, Age 19
Currently with AAA Las Vegas (Dodgers)

2005 Rickie Weeks, 2b, Age 22
Brewers starting 2nd Baseman
Career .256 avg .758 ops

2006 Justin Verlander, rhp, Age 23
Tigers - 2006 Rookie Of The Year 17-9 3.63 era

Angels call up Brandon Wood

Following tonight's 9-1 win over Tampa Bay, the Angels announced that they are sending Kendry Morales back to Salt Lake City and are calling up top prospect Brandon Wood.

Wood has been the Angels Top Prospect according to Baseball America for the past two seasons. The 22-year old third baseman was hitting .278 with 3 home runs and 15 rbi in 20 games for the AAA Bees.

Wood was the Angels first round draft pick (23rd overall) in 2003 as a shortstop. He had a breakout year in 2005 at Rancho Cucamonga batting .321 with 43 home runs and 115 rbi. He was named to the Baseball America 1st Team and was the High A Player of the Year.

Wood was moved to Third Base this spring due to a log jam at shortstop behind Orlando Cabrera and Erick Aybar.

Morales, 23, hit .400 for the Angels in 2 games since being called up to replace Howie Kendrick last week.

Ex-Angels Stats 4/24/07

Ex-Angel update 4/24/07

Troy Glaus is on the 15 Day DL with a bone spur in his left heel and a sore hamstring.  

Hitters                
EX-ANGEL         TEAM   H  AB  R HR BI BB  SO   AVG   OPS
Troy Glaus        TOR   8  24  6  2  5  6   4  .333 1.092
Josh Paul          TB   8  21  3  0  5  2   5  .381  .816
Orlando Palmeiro  HOU   4  12  3  0  1  2   2  .333  .800
Bengie Molina      SF  14  55  3  1  5  3   9  .255  .723
Damion Easley     NYM   1  10  2  1  1  2   1  .100  .650
Jim Edmonds       STL  11  52  4  1  4  7  13  .212  .632
Alberto Callaspo  ARI  14  54  4  0  1  3   4  .259  .625
Jose Guillen      SEA  11  50  6  1  3  1  10  .220  .584
David Eckstein    STL  16  67  7  0  4  5   1  .239  .584
Scott Spiezio     STL   6  33  2  0  3  7   5  .182  .584
Alfredo Amezaga   FLA  10  48  2  0  3  3   7  .208  .567
Adam Kennedy      STL  10  49  2  0  4  3   4  .204  .536
Darin Erstad      CWS  14  68  6  1  6  6   9  .206  .517
Steve Finley      COL   5  37  2  1  2  3   2  .135  .470
                 
Pitchers
EX-ANGEL         TEAM  G   W-L SV  IP  BB   K   ERA   BAA
Brendan Donnelly  BOS   7  0-0  0  4.1  1   3  0.00  .071
Derrick Turnbow   MIL  10  0-0  1 10.0  4  17  1.80  .171
Ramon Ortiz       MIN   4  3-1  0 29.0  2  12  2.48  .215
Aaron Sele        NYM   4  0-0  0  7.0  2   5  2.57  .231
Scott Schoeneweis NYM   9  0-0  0  6.2  7   2  2.70  .250
Bobby Jenks       CWS  11  1-1  7 10.0  3  10  3.38  .250
Matt Wise         MIL   9  0-1  0  7.2  1   4  3.52  .241
Kevin Gregg       FLA   9  0-1  1 14.0  7  17  3.86  .216
Russ Springer     STL   9  0-0  0  6.1  4   7  4.26  .136
Jarrod Washburn   SEA   3  0-2  0 18.0  6  11  4.42  .261
Paul Byrd         CLE   2  1-1  0 12.0  2   7  4.50  .308
J.C. Romero       BOS   9  0-0  0  6.1  2   2  5.68  .400
Jake Woods        SEA   2  0-0  0  7.2  5   1  5.87  .258
Joel Peralta       KC   9  0-2  0  9.2  5   9  7.45  .357
Jeff Weaver       SEA   3  0-3  0 11.0  3   7 13.91  .436

Managers
Bud Black     SD 11- 8 .579 2nd place 2.0 games behind LAD
Jerry Narron CIN  9-10 .474 3rd place 3.0 games behind MIL
Joe Maddon    TB  8-11 .421 5th place 4.5 games behind BOS

Hope Saunders Has A Round Trip Ticket ...

No, even though Weaver got shelled tonight, I don't think he is in danger of slipping out of the rotation anytime soon. But even expecting last year's measure of success may be unrealistic. Pitchers who have phenomenal rookie years typically have a drop off; early in their careers scouting reports start to circulate and big league hitters pick up on their stuff. Fernando's ERA jumped almost a run from 1982 to 1983 (his second and third seasons).

And how is Jeff Weaver doing this year? 0-3 with a 13.91 ERA. It looks like he has recovered nicely from his World Series anomaly.

Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde & Senor Santana

I'm not sure I've ever seen a baseball team as "Jekyll and Hyde" as the Angels. The Home Angels are 8-2 and the Road Angels are 1-7. It makes for a nice and even 9-9, but the disparity is disturbing. Not only is their record bad, everything about the Angels is bad. They win by an average of 2.2 runs at home and lose by an average of 3.5 on the road.

Fortunately, I have an explanation for the road troubles. They're intentionally losing on the road to make Ervin Santana feel better. In his short two-year career, Santana has been great at home and terrible on the road. This year is no different. Santana has started 2 games at home and has won them both with an era of 1.93. On the road, Santana has also started 2 games and lost them both with an era of 11.88.

So, with this genius theory in mind, Santana's road problems will shortly disappear.
Once the Angels start winning on the road, Santana will follow suit and become a good pitcher on the road as well...And then we can trade him for a bat.

Santana's Career Numbers

Home 20-5 3.07 era
Road 9-13 6.78 era

Absurd Projections

The Angels have played 16 games which is roughly 10% of their 162 game schedule. Taking the current statistics of the players and multiplying it by 10 gives me an absurd prediction of their season totals. I realize that this is as unscientific as it gets, but I like doing it just to see how ridiculous the numbers are.

Statistical Projections

Alex Rodriguez - He's not an Angel, but he is off to an incredible start and we all know how he'll finish. A-Rod is on pace for 130 home runs and 324 rbi - well ahead of the records of 73 (Barry Bonds) and 191 (Hack Wilson).

Gary Matthews Jr. - He hit 19 home runs last year and 17 the year before that. But add in a Spring Training HGH scandal and he's now on pace for 0 home runs.

Orlando Cabrera - Cabrera's predicted numbers are all reasonable - 10 home runs, 40 rbi, 70 runs scored, 60 walks. 70 strike outs and 0 errors. Whoa, after committing 16 errors last year, it's good to see OC's glove is working.

Vladimir Guerrero - 40hr, 130rbi - These numbers don't seem too far off. Vlad is the only Angel player who is on pace to surpass 100 rbi.

Garret Anderson - The surprising team leader in runs scored (Should he be batting lead off?) with a projected 100. His projected rbi total of 30 equals A-Rod's current output.

Shea Hillenbrand - What can I say about this guy? He is projected to make $6 million this season. His batting average is .179, his obp is .179, his slugging percentage is .179. This guy sucks. He's the 2007 version of the 2006 Edgardo Alfonzo or the 2005 Steve Finley.

As bad as the hitters have been, the pitching staff has been really good.

John Lackey and Joe Saunders are both on pace for 20 win seasons, although Saunders will get most of those wins at Salt Lake City.

Lackey is on pace for 210 strike outs which would be a career best for him.

Francisco Rodriguez will record 50 saves which isn't too far fetched if they continue to squander 8-0 8th inning leads.

Ervin Santana will go 10-0 at home with a 2.57 era and 0-20 on the road with a 11.88 era.

And last, but not least, Kelvim Escobar is projected to go on the DL 10 times this season.

Down On The Farm 4/20/07

AAA Salt Lake City

The Bees lead the Pacific North Division of the PCL with a 9-6 record. They lost last night to Tucson 4-2 who had Randy Johnson starting on a rehab assignment.  The Bees managed to get 6 hits off of JOhnson, including a 2-for-3 performance by Brandon Wood.

Lefty Phil Seibel, who the Angels got in the Brendan Donnelly trade, has been sent to the DL. In two starts with Salt Lake he is 0-2 with an era of 11.25. As bad as those numbers are, his Spring Training numbers were worse - 6 appearances with an era of 16.89.

                    avg    ops misc
Brandon Wood     ss .323  .943 12-rbi 18-so
Jeff Mathis       c .277  .772 4-2b
Kendry Morales   1b .291  .698 8-rbi
Terry Evans      of .375 1.112 3-hr 4-sb

                     ip w-l   era misc
Kasey Olenberger sp 20.0 1-1 2.25 12k/4bb

AA Arkansas

The Travelers are 5-8 and one game out of first place.  Nick Adenhart continues to dominate and if the Angels are looking for a spot start from the minors, he has to be their first choice. The 20-year old Adenhart pitched 7 shutout innings last night for the win. He has 3 of Arkansas' 5 wins.

                    avg    ops misc
Sean Rodriguez   ss .333 1.085 2-hr 5-2b

                     ip w-l   era misc
Nick Adenhart    sp 18.1 3-0 0.49 16k/7bb

A Rancho Cucamonga

The Quakes are in first place with a 10-4 record.  Steve Marek is back from the DL and started last night giving up 5 hits and 2 earned runs in 4 innings.

                     ip w-l   era misc
Brok Butcher     sp 14.1 2-0 0.63 2-bb

A Cedar Rapids

If you think the Angels' bats are cold, the Kernels only have 3 players hitting better than .245.

                    avg    ops misc
Hank Conger       c .242  .857 2-hr 4-sb

                     ip w-l   era misc
Sean O'Sullivan  sp 13.0 1-0 2.77 10k/1bb

Howie Kendrick Replacement Possibilities

Howie Kendrick was put on the 15 day disabled list due to a broken bone in his left middle finger. Kendrick was hit by a pitch from Oakland's Chad Gaudin during Tuesday night's game. So the question now is, who will replace Howie?

Erick Aybar will probably be the main replacement for Kendrick. Aybar started today's game at 2nd base and went 0-for-3. His .125 batting average should fit in nicely with the rest of the Angels lineup.

Maicer Izturis could also see some time at second base. If Maicer plays second base, look for Robb Quinlan (0-for-12 this season) or Shea Hillenbrand (5-for-35) to fill in at 3rd base.

As for a replacement on the roster, there are a few options at AAA Salt Lake, all of which probably won't involve a second baseman. In the past three games, the Bees have started a different player at second base each game - Matt Brown, Adam Pavkovich and Casey Smith.

Here are the most likely players to be called up:

Kendry Morales was with the Angels last year and is hitting .304 with 1 home run and 7 rbi for the Bees this season. Although Kendry plays first base, he could be used as a switch hitting bat off the bench.

Brandon Wood, the Angels top prospect, could be called up as an extra bat. He just moved from shortstop to 3rd Base this spring, so defensively he could be a liability. Wood is hitting only .264 with 3 home runs and 8 rbi at Salt Lake City. He has also struck out 16 times in 53 at-bats.

Outfielders Nathan Haynes and Terry Evans are also possibilities although I think the Angels would like to have an extra infielder in Kendrick's absence.

How bad is 6 runs in 6 games?

How bad have the Angels been during this six game slide?

They have scored a total of six runs in the past six games. One run per game. There are three American League teams (Texas, Boston, Minnesota) who have averaged over 6 runs per game in their past 6 games.

AL teams total runs in their past 6 games:

TEAM        TOT  RPG
Texas        40  6.7
Boston       40  6.7
Minnesota    37  6.2
Baltimore    35  5.8
Detroit      34  5.7
New York     33  5.5
Seattle      32  5.3
Tampa Bay    32  5.3
AVERAGE TEAM 26  4.4
Oakland      23  3.8
Kansas City  21  3.5
Cleveland    18  3.0
White Sox    15  2.5
Angels        6  1.0

Ex-Angels Stats 4/17/07

HITTING STATISTICS
EX-ANGEL        TEAM  H AB  R  H HR RBI BB SO  AVG   OPS
Troy Glaus       TOR  8 24  6  8  2  5   6  4 .333 1.092
Josh Paul         TB  3 10  1  3  0  2   1  4 .300  .664
Alfredo Amezaga  FLA  7 24  2  7  0  3   1  4 .292  .820
Alberto Callaspo ARI 11 38  4 11  0  1   2  2 .289  .710
Bengie Molina     SF 10 38  2 10  1  3   1  7 .263  .774
David Eckstein   STL 12 46  5 12  0  3   4  1 .261  .622
Orlando Palmeiro HOU  2  8  2  2  0  1   2  1 .250  .650
Jim Edmonds      STL  8 34  2  8  0  1   4  7 .235  .581
Adam Kennedy     STL  7 33  2  7  0  2   1  2 .212  .538
Scott Spiezio    STL  4 21  2  4  0  3   4  4 .190  .584
Darin Erstad     CWS  7 37  4  7  1  3   4  8 .189  .532
Jose Guillen     SEA  5 27  4  5  1  2   1  8 .185  .575
Steve Finley     COL  1 21  0  1  0  1   1  1 .048  .139
Damion Easley    NYM  0  4  1  0  0  0   2  0 .000  .333
PITCHING STATISTICS
EX-ANGEL         TEAM  G W-L SV   IP BB  K   ERA  BAA
Brendan Donnelly  BOS  5 0-0  0  2.2  1  2  0.00 .111
Paul Byrd         CLE  1 1-0  0  6.0  2  5  0.00 .217
Derrick Turnbow   MIL  6 0-0  0  6.0  1 11  0.00 .100
Scott Schoeneweis NYM  6 0-0  0  5.1  4  1  0.00 .176
Matt Wise         MIL  6 0-0  0  5.1  1  1  1.69 .250
Ramon Ortiz       MIN  2 2-0  0 15.0  2  8  1.80 .154
Kevin Gregg       FLA  6 0-1  0  6.1  4  8  2.84 .280
Aaron Sele        NYM  2 0-0  0  5.1  2  4  3.38 .250
Jarrod Washburn   SEA  2 0-1  0 12.0  4  6  3.75 .233
Bobby Jenks       CWS  7 1-1  3  6.2  2  8  4.05 .259
Russ Springer     STL  7 0-0  0  4.2  4  5  5.79 .176
Joel Peralta       KC  6 0-1  0  7.1  4  9  6.14 .290
J.C. Romero       BOS  6 0-0  0  4.1  0  1  6.23 .350
Jake Woods        SEA  1 0-0  0  2.0  3  0 13.50 .364
Jeff Weaver       SEA  1 0-1  0  2.0  2  1 31.50 .583
COACHING STATISTICS
Jerry Narron CIN 8-6 .571 1st place 0.5 games above MIL
Bud Black     SD 8-6 .571 3rd place 1.5 games behind LAD
Joe Maddon    TB 6-8 .429 5th place 2.5 games behind TOR

Soriano, the missing big bat?

After every game, I hear the complaints, "Arte promised us a big bat." And he didn't deliver.

So I ask the same question, what was Arte supposed to do?

What was Bill Stoneman supposed to do?

I could write volumes on this, but today, I'm just going to address Alfonso Soriano.

The whole world knew that Soriano was the bat the Angels were targeting. Aramis Ramirez was also on the radar, as was Carlos Lee, but both were secondary priorities.

Soriano signed an eight year deal with the cubs for $138 million. That works out to over $17 million dollars per season until Soriano is 39 years old. The Angels offered him seven years and $118 million ($16.8 million annually) but he, like all athletes, went for the extra $20 million.

Did Angel fans really want to pay this guy more than $138 million? Arte didn't. Stoneman didn't. And neither did I. It was just too much money.

Suppose the Angels did pay him that much money. How much help would he have been against Boston? The Angels lost 10-1, 8-0 and 7-2. No player can make up 6-10 runs per game, not even Barry Bonds during his "superhuman" years.

Soriano has started all 11 games for the Cubs this year and what has his big bat brought? 1 rbi. That's right one run batted in. 47 at-bats, 0 home runs, a .234 avg and .642 ops.

So looking at Arte's move now, how can Angel fans be mad about not signing Soriano. He was the target this offseason. Can you imagine the fans response if we had signed Soriano for $118 million and all he had produced was 1 rbi?

Well you know where I stand, I'll comment on pitching, running, walks, trades, etc later.

Loss Number 2 at Fenway

Ouch!

Just finished watching the Angels get beat bad at game 2 in Fenway. I guess the baseball season hasn't really started until you lose twice in a row on the road.

Feels kind of strange seeing Donelly in a Red Sox uniform.

Question - best and worst Angel to every play for the Red Sox?

For me, it is easy. Best - Fred Lynn. Worst - Mo Vauhgn. What's he doing these days?

Scot Shields and the beast that is Fenway Park

I'll admit it, I missed tonight's game.

On the way home I heard that the Angels lost to the Red sox 10-1 and I immediately thought, "Oh, no, Scot Shields."

I'm not trying to extend the "Let's Blame Shields for yesterday's loss" movement, but Shields has had an absolutely terrible time pitching at Fenway.

How terrible? A career era of 17.18. His career era is 2.82. It's not as bad as Jarrod Washburn's postseason era at Fenway (infinity) but it's close.

It all started on August 26, 2002. Shields came into the game to start the bottom of the 10th. He faced one batter. On the 9th pitch, Johnny Damon hit a walk off home run to give the Red Sox a 10-9 (box score) win.

It hasn't gotten any better. Here are Shields' career numbers at Fenway.

Year	G	W-L	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2006	1	0-0	0.2	3	3	0	1	0	40.50	4.50
2005	4	0-2	3.2	4	5	2	4	6	12.27	2.18
2004 ALDS	1	0-0	1.1	4	1	0	1	1	6.75	3.75
2004	1	0-0	2.0	5	5	1	1	1	22.50	3.00
2003	1	0-0	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0.00	1.00
2002	1	0-1	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.00
Career	8	0-3	7.1	13	14	5	6	10	17.18	2.59

Down On The Farm 4/13/07

A look at the Angels top prospects

AAA Salt Lake City
Brandon Wood, ss____7/32 .219avg__.817ops 3hr__11k
Jeff Mathis, c______5/19 .263avg__.890ops 5bb__0k
Kendry Morales, 1b 10/30 .333avg__.742ops 1rbi
Terry Evans, of_____8/23 .348avg_1.075ops 2hr__10so

AA Arkansas
Nick Adenhart, rhp___1-0__5.1ip___.000era 1h___8k/2bb
Sean Rodriguez, ss__9/21 .429avg_1.425ops 4-2b 2hr

A Cedar Rapids
Hank Conger, c______2/10 .200avg__.700ops 1hr
Sean O'Sullivan, rhp 0-1__6.0ip___3.00era

Starters Stephen Marek (Rancho Cucamonga) and Tommy Mendoza (Rancho Cucamonga) are spending time at extended spring training. Marek is working on mechanical issues and Mendoza is trying to rehab an injured shoulder. To replace Marek and Mendoza, the Quakes used Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver.

Cabrera Bashing is sooooo yesterday

Last night, multiple callers to the post game show complained that Orlando Cabrera shouldn't be batting second. Tonight, the scoreboard operators in Milwaukee jumped on the Cabrera Bashing Bandwagon.

Angels fans, I think Shakespeare said it best, "36 at-bats doth not make a season."

With tonight's 9th inning rbi single, Cabrera is hitting 2 for 12 (.167) with runners in scoring position this year. It's not good, but it's too early to make a change.

If batting avg with risp was the end-all-be-all stat, then all of the Angels would be benched. They're only hitting .234 with risp. That's 10th in the American League. What's worse is that the Angels OPS with risp is 13th in the AL, ahead of only Oakland. So bench everybody. Except Maicer Izturis. He's hitting .556 (5 for 9) with risp. Vladimir Guerrero (4 for 10) and Casey Kotchman (3 for 8) are o.k. too.

Back to Cabrera hitting second. Last year is a much better sample size (607 at-bats) for Cabrera. Here are OC's numbers based on where he hits in the lineup.

Spot__AB____H___AVG___OPS

1st___21____8__.381__.963
2nd__354__103__.291__.750
3rd__232___60__.259__.703
8th____0____0__.000__.000

So you see, you're right Cabrera shouldn't be hitting second - he should be leading off.

Just food for thought kids.

Ending the game on a caught stealing

Should Aybar attempt to steal second base?

Situation: Two outs in the 9th inning, Angels down one run, Erick Aybar on first base, Howie Kendrick (4 for 4 on the day: 1 double 3 singles) at the plate.

In the days before the internet, this question could be made into a long math problem and be debated for hours. Now I just go to Mr. Google and ask him for help. I found the help on an old espn article.

They showed a "run expectation table" from the entire 2000 season. The table tells us, for each of the 24 possible bases/outs situations, the average number of runs that score from that situation.

     Bases           Outs
               0     1     2
     empty   0.57  0.31  0.12
       1st   0.97  0.60  0.27
       2nd   1.18  0.73  0.33
  1st, 2nd   1.63  1.01  0.48
       3rd   1.52  1.00  0.41
  1st, 3rd   1.92  1.24  0.52
  2nd, 3rd   2.05  1.50  0.64
1st, 2nd, 3rd 2.54  1.70  0.82

To correctly use these numbers, we have to assume that we have an average runner on first and average hitters batting and on deck. To solve our problem we need a base stealing number. Last year, the Angels as a team were successful stealing 72% of the time.

Now some quick computations.

1. Aybar does not attempt to steal
Angels score .27 runs
(100% safe not stealing * .27 runs from table)

2. Aybar is thrown out stealing
Angels score 0.00 runs
(28% thrown out * 0 runs)

3. Aybar steals second base
Angels score .24 runs
(72% safe stealing * .33 runs from table)

So, the best option is to not steal. At least when you're considering the average players in the average situation.

Let the debate begin....facts for your personal argument

• Aybar is a lousy base stealer. He averaged over 35 sb per year in 5 minor league seasons, but was successful only 65% of the time.
• Kendrick was 4 for 4 on the day (4 doubles & 3 singles)
• Cleveland's pitcher, Joe Borowski, had allowed two hits to four batters he had faced.
• The table shows average runs, not the chance of getting one run to tie the game.
  

Last Night's Game

More than anything else, last night's game made me wish I was living in Milwaukee and could pay $10, grab any seat in the house, and watch the sausage race (one of baseball's great events). The fact that there were 10,000+ people there speaks to baseball's power and popularity. And I found the "Major League" demonstrations in the stands pretty funny.

Tough call to have Aybar steal with the bat in Kendrick's hands. Especially when Howie was 4 for 4. Oh well - I find it easier to lose that way than with a strikeout.

Ex-Angel Stats - 4/10/07

The arguments are many - Kendrick or Kennedy? Cabrera or Eckstein? Glaus vs a warm body?

Here are the stats to back up your argument.

2007 Hitting Statistics

EX-ANGEL________TEAM__H AB__R HR RBI BB SO__AVG__ OPS
Alfredo Amezaga__FLA__4 10__1__0__1__ 1__1 .400 1.155
Scott Spiezio____STL__2__5__2__0__0__ 2__0 .400 1.171
Orlando Palmeiro HOU__2__5__1__0__1__ 0__0 .400__.800
Troy Glaus______ TOR__6 17__3__1__4__ 4__3 .353 1.006
Josh Paul________ TB__2__6__0__0__1__ 1__1 .333__.762
Bengie Molina____ SF__7 22__0__0__0__ 1__3 .318__.848
Darin Erstad____ CWS__6 20__4__1__2__ 3__2 .300__.841
Alberto Callaspo ARI__6 21__2__0__1__ 0__2 .286__.699
David Eckstein__ STL__7 26__2__0__1__ 2__1 .269__.653
Jim Edmonds______STL__4 17__1__0__0__ 3__4 .235__.644
Jose Guillen____ SEA__2__9__2__0__0__ 1__4 .222__.633
Adam Kennedy____ STL__3 21__1__0__0__ 1__2 .143__.468
Steve Finley____ COL__1 12__0__0__1__ 1__1 .083__.237
Damion Easley____NYM__0__1__0__0__0__ 0__0 .000__.000

2007 PITCHING STATISTICS

EX-ANGEL________ TEAM__G___IP W-L SV BB__K__ ERA__BAA
Brendan Donnelly__BOS__2__1.0 0-0__0__1__1__0.00 .000
Bobby Jenks______ CWS__4__4.0 1-0__1__1__5__0.00 .077
Derrick Turnbow__ MIL__3__3.0 0-0__0__0__4__0.00 .100
Aaron Sele________NYM__1__1.0 0-0__0__0__2__0.00 .250
Matt Wise________ MIL__2__1.1 0-0__0__1__1__0.00 .200
Scott Schoeneweis NYM__3__2.1 0-0__0__2__0__0.00 .333
Joel Peralta______ KC__3__4.2 0-0__0__2__8__1.93 .250
Ramon Ortiz______ MIN__1__7.0 1-0__0__1__4__2.57 .192
Kevin Gregg______ FLA__3__3.1 0-0__0__2__2__2.70 .250
Jarrod Washburn__ SEA__1__6.0 0-0__0__3__2__3.00 .158
J.C. Romero______ BOS__4__2.2 0-0__0__0__1 10.13 .429
Russ Springer____ STL__3__1.2 0-0__0__2__2 16.20 .429

2007 MANAGING STATISTICS

Jerry Narron______CIN 4-4 .500 1st place tie
Bud Black_________ SD 5-3 .625 2nd place 1.5 games out
Joe Maddon________ TB 2-5 .286 5th place 2.0 games out

Some musings early in the season

On Sunday, I made it to my first game of the season. I was out of town for the earlier part of the homestand.

Couple of early season musings:

• Is anyone else slightly depressed that we are starting the season with Izturis at third base? I realize it is just temporary with the injury to Figgins, but the whole third base situation seems closer to some unfortunate third base years - Dave Hollins, Jack Howell - than exciting one's (Doug DeCinces, Troy Glaus).
• I'm glad the whole HGH things seems largely behind Gary Matthews Jr. I think he will be an exciting lead off hitter this year, and he's already paying dividends in center field.
• Is GA back? I hope so.
• Finally, this was my daughter's first game - she is 14 months - and I was quite happy with how child friendly Angel stadium is. I've noticed it before, of course, but this time I really started getting excited about all the different games in the outfield pavilion she will be able to play in future seasons.

Go Halos!

Snowed out

The Angels series in Cleveland starting tomorrow has been moved to Milwaukee.

After getting 10 inches of snow the past few days, Jacobs Field is in no condition to be played on. The two teams will play in Milwaukee at Miller Park where the retractable roof guarantees that the games will be played.

My personal over-under for attendance Tuesday is 2,300. I wanted to set the line at 2,727 but thought that it was too high.

If you're wondering why, the Indians didn't swap homestands with the Angels, it comes down to (drum roll please) money.

Week In Review

Picture of the Week - Garret Anderson slides safely in to home on Opening Night.

The Angels finished 5-2 in their first week of play. They are in first place in the AL West, one game up on Seattle (2-1).

Hitting - So far, the hitting has been a little bit better than expected. The Angels are batting .286 as a team which is 3rd in the American League. They're 1st in hits in the A.L., 2nd in home runs, 3rd in runs scored, 3rd in doubles, 3rd in stolen bases and 5th in the all important OPS.

RISP Worries - With all the good hitting that has taken place, the Angels are only hitting .210 with runners in scoring position and .083 (2 for 24) with runners in scoring position and two outs.

Vladimir Guerrero has been on a tear - His .440 avg, 3 home runs and 10 rbi are all 2nd in the American League.

What's a walk? - The Angels aren't known for taking walks so it is refreshing to see that Gary Matthews Jr is in the Top 5 in the AL in walks. Matthews is tied for second in runs scored with seven. The last Angel to finish in the Top 10 in the AL was Troy Glaus in 2002 who finished 8th.

Anderson & Kotchman - These two speedsters are among the ten players leading the AL in doubles with three apiece.

Pitching - The pitching has been fantastic. Their team ERA of 2.00 leads the American League. They also lead the AL in strikeouts and saves. They have the 3rd lowest whip at 1.21.

Lackey starts strong - John Lackey and Johan Santana are the only 2-game winners in the AL so far. In two starts, Lackey has only given up 1 earned run. He also is 4th in the league in strikeouts with 11.

K-Rod shaky - Francisco Rodriguez is tied for the league lead in saves with three. He also has one loss and an uncharacteristically high baa of .353. His career batting average against .183.

Jump off the bandwagon, the perfect season is history

Why do we even bother to watch? If they can't win every game, what's the use?

161-1 just doesn't have the luster of 162-0.

Well, back to reality. Today was spent reading people's accounts of how Frankie is cheating with Vaseline, Vagisil or melted Peeps rubbed in to his hat and then applying it to the baseball. So first off, I must say, I condone cheating in baseball. Right or wrong, it's part of the game. It's like fighting in hockey. Or taking an extra step in basketball. Or grabbing genitals in rugby.

I just don't believe it in Frankie's case. There are reasons to cheat in baseball and he doesn't meet any of them.

• You suck. Ex-Pitcher Jason Grimsley sucked so he took steroids. He spent most of his 15 year career as a relief pitcher and earned $10 million dollars by cheating. His one year of 100+ innings came with the Angels back in 1996. He went 5-7 with a 6.84 era and was paid $425,000 for his service.
• You're old. The old guy tries to regain his old form.
• You're coming back from an injury. Again, trying to regain old form.
• You're in a contract year. Ask Gary Matthews Jr about this one.

In any case, Frankie is neither crappy (led the majors in saves last year) nor old (He's 25) nor injured, nor in a contract year (this past January he signed a one year deal for $7 million.) So contract year has to be the reason.

Notes from game #4: A's 4 - Angels 3

Surprise! the A's and Angels' game is decided by one run.

Colon looking good - He pitched four shutout innings for Rancho Cucamonga tonight. He gave up one hit and one walk and struck out five. He retired the last ten batters he faced. His next rehab start is scheduled for Tuesday, April 10th at 7:05 vs Inland Empire. Next up for Rancho Cucamonga: Jered Weaver

Let the DH Carousel begin - What were the odds on Reggie Willits batting DH during the first week of the season?

Matthews to tempt fate - Gary Matthews JR is going to wear jersey #42 to honor Jackie Robinson on April 15th. The last Angel to wear #42 was none other than Mo Vaughn. Hopefully, Sarge2 doesn't stumble down the dugout stairs. Ironically, the Angels will be playing in Boston that day.

Moseley debut tonight - Moseley has two career starts including one against the Oakland A's. He allowed 7 earned runs in just 4 innings. Somehow he managed to escape without a loss as the Angels rallied to tie the game at 10 in the 8th inning. The A's won it in the 10th by a score of 11-10. A one run game. Go figure.

Is it too early to write off the Rangers?

Three down, 159 to go.

Notes from game #3, Angels 4, Rangers 1

Three hits per game - The Rangers used to be a team of big hitters. Well, in the three game series, they had a total of 9 hits, that's three per game. On Tuesday Vladimir Guerrero had 4 hits, matching the total of the Rangers.

Piling on the pathetic hitting - The Rangers team batting average is .145. There are 11 Angels who have at least one at-bat this year and all 11 of them are hitting above .145.

Now that's a 1-2 Punch - The single A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes have arguably the best two pitchers in the minor leagues starting for them this week. Opening night, the Quakes have former Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon pitching. The following night, Jered Weaver is scheduled to start for the Quakes. Opening night is Thursday, April 5th at 7:05 vs the Lake Elsinore Storm. Game two of the series is Friday at 7:05 against the Storm at the Epicenter in Rancho Cucamonga. If you need more incentive to head out to Cucamonga, there is a fireworks show following the Thursday game.

Vladimir Guerrero continues to destroy Texas - He has now hit safely in 800 of 801 career games against the Rangers. Well, not quite 800, but you get the point.

Off the pace - After Opening Day, I really thought that Shea Hillenbrand might get thrown out trying to steal 324 times. Unfortunately, the numbers have caught up with him and he is on pace now to be thrown out only 108 times.

Cub Check - Two of the Angels' biggest post season targets last year were both re-signed by the Chicago Cubs. Third baseman Aramis Ramirez has 4 singles in 9 at-bats thus far, but no rbis. Slick fielding Alfonso Soriano is 2 for 8 with 0 rbis.

Vlad the Ranger Killer

Vladimir Guerrero continues to scorch the Rangers. Here's a look at his career vs. Texas.

56 games
218 at-bats
96 hits
18 doubles
0 triples
21 home runs
49 rbi
26 bb
.440 avg
.502 obp
.812 slg
1.314 ops

Last year, Vlad had 657 plate appearances. If you take his career numbers against Texas and project them to a full season (657 plate appearances), here's what they would look like.

258 hits
48 doubles
0 triples
57 home runs
132 rbi
70 bb

Tim Salmon used to be the Ranger Killer, but his numbers pale in comparison to Vlad's.

158 games
567 at-bats
200 hits
39 doubles
5 triples
35 home runs
119 rbi
95 bb
.353 avg
.447 obp
.624 slg
1.072 ops

Day 1 - 162-0 !!!

One down, 161 to go.

Notes from game #1, Angels 4, Rangers 1

Defensive woes continue - Mike Napoli dropped a routine pop up and Gary Matthews Jr dropped an even-more-routine fly ball to right center field. Not only did these errors cost the Angels outs, they caused John Lackey to throw 20+ more pitches in the 3rd inning. However, as annoying as errors are to a pitcher, there is no reason for Lackey to show his appreciation/frustration by walking the next two batters.

The bullpen is good - Justin Speier, Scot Shields and K-Rod pitched a combined 4 innings without allowing a baserunner.

Another year with no lefty in the pen? - Darren Oliver is the lone lefty in the bullpen this year. While the rest of the bullpen did their job last night, Oliver pitched to two batters and gave up a single and a walk. Could this be J.C. Romero all over again?

Caught Stealing record within reach - Shea Hillenbrand was caught stealing twice last night. At that pace, he will be caught 324 times this year. That will shatter Rickey Henderson's 1982 record of being caught 42 times in one season. It would also give him 333 for his career - two behind Henderson for the record. The real question here is why was Hillenbrand going? In 870 career games, he has stolen only 16 bases.

Let the 'We shouldn't have left Erstad go' complaints begin - Darin Erstad hit a 2-run home run in his first at-bat for the Chicago White Sox. The home run was useless as Chicago was already trailing 5-0 in the bottom of the 1st.

Other teams are benefiting from our good bullpen - Joel Peralta faced 7 Red Sox and struck out 4 of them including David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. Brendan Donnelly faced one batter and struck him out. J.C. Romero faced two batters and retired both of them.