Everything "They" tell you about the playoffs is wrong

The baseball postseason is like no other sport. What might be true in the NFL, NBA or NHL playoffs is not true in baseball. It is it's own beast. Any team really can win. So here are three things the media tell you that are statistically wrong.

1. The best teams have the best chance of winning the World Series.

I wrote about this back in early August (link) and found that regular season record has absolutely no bearing on postseason success. In the Wild Card era, 18 teams have finished with 100 wins or more during the regular season and only one of them (1998 Yankees) won the World Series. Incredibly two teams with less than 90 wins have won the World Series - 2006 Cardinals (83-78) and the 2000 Yankees (87-74).

 Wins     Teams     Titles Percent
100-116     17        1         5.9%
95-99       31        4        12.9%
90-94       25        4        16.0%
82-89       15        2        13.3%

2. Home field advantage is an advantage.

I wrote about this last week (link). I researched the past 8 years (56 series) and found that the home team wins only 45% of the series. I only researched 8 years because prior to that the Division Sereies had a 3-2 format instead of the 2-2-1 format.

Records of Teams with Home Field Advantage
2006 1-6 .143 (Home team won 1 series and lost 6)
2005 5-2 .714
2004 4-3 .571
2003 2-5 .286
2002 1-6 .143
2001 5-2 .714
2000 3-4 .429
1999 4-3 .571
Tot 25-31 .446

3. To win it all you have to have momentum.

I just researched this back to 1999. 56 series should be enough to get some decent data. Momentum is hard to quantify, but I decided to use the team's record in their last 10 games heading into the playoffs. It's a stat we're all familiar with which makes it as good as any other.

2007 Records (Last 10) of playoff teams

BOS 6-4
NYY 6-4
CLE 6-4
LAA 4-6

COL 9-1
PHI 7-3
CHC 6-4
ARI 5-5
SDG 4-6

Either Colorado or San Diego will be eliminated later today.

The average post season team enters the postseason going 6-4 in their past 10 games. In the past 8 seasons 15 teams have gone 6-4 while 25 teams have been better and 24 teams have been worse. If you believe in momentum the numbers should surprise you.

Last 10	Teams	Series Wins	WS Titles
7-3 or better	25	22-21 (.512)	4
6-4	15	12-15 (.444)	0
5-5 or worse	24	22-20 (524)	4

Looking at it, there is no bearing on World Series titles or series wins based on momentum. Here's the chart broken down a bit further.

Last 10	Teams	Series Wins	WS Titles
9-1	3	3-3 (.500)	0
8-2	11	8-10 (.444)	1
7-3	11	11-8 (.579)	3
6-4	15	12-15 (.444)	0
5-5	13	10-12 (.455)	1
4-6	8	6-7 (.462)	1
3-7	2	3-1 (.750)	1
2-8	1	3-0 (1.000)	1

I'm not trying to say that you want to finish 7-3 like the Phillies. The point here is that momentum has no bearing on winning the World Series.

Regular season record, home field advantage and momentum are all myths when it comes to the baseball playoffs. The truth is every team has a 1 in 8 chance of winning it.

I'm not trying to explain why baseball is like this; I'm just saying that if you look at the history of the playoffs, it's anybody's game.