Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Dispelling a myth: Homefield is an advantage in the playoffs

Home field advantage does not exist in the MLB playoffs.

It is a statistically proven fact. In the past eight seasons, the home team has won 25 series while the road team has won 31 series.

Please stop calling the radio station after the game and worrying about it.

Think back to 2002.

Did the Angels have home field advantage?

Did they win the World Series?

The Angels went to New York, split two and won the series at home.

The Angels went to Minnesota, split two and won the series at home.

In the World Series the Angels had home field advantage and won in seven.

Three series and two of the three teams with home field advantage lost.

In fact, of the 7 post season series in 2002, 6 of the 7 teams with home field advantage lost.

Home field advantage does not exist in the MLB playoffs. Do not confuse baseball with the NFL or NBA, home field advantage just does not exist.

Last year, the Cardinals won it all. Not only are they the worst team in baseball history to win the World Series, they did it on the road. They didn't have home field advantage once.

In fact, the only team with home field advantage to win in the 2006 playoffs was the New York Mets who beat the Dodgers in the Division Series.

It's not always this much of a disadvantage, but the numbers favor the team WITHOUT home field advantage.

Records of Teams with Home Field Advantage
2006 1-6 .143 (Home team won 1 series and lost 6)
2005 5-2 .714
2004 4-3 .571
2003 2-5 .286
2002 1-6 .143
2001 5-2 .714
2000 3-4 .429
1999 4-3 .571
Tot 25-31 .446

So there it is. In the last eight seasons, the team with home field advantage has won less than 45% of the series.

The reason I only go back to 1999 is that from 1995-1998 the Division Series format was different. Currently the home team in the 5-game Division Series has games 1,2 and 5 at home. Between 1995-98, the home team played at home for games 3,4 and 5.

Here is a breakdown by series for the past 8 years.

Division Series     13-19 .406
League Championship   7-9 .438
World Series          5-3 .625

So, as it happens, you as an Angel fan would like to have the "road advantage" for the ALDS and ALCS and then the home field advantage for the World Series. With the American League hosting the World Series, the Angels look to have the advantage in 2 out of 3 series.

List of myths dispelled in recent blog entries:
List of myths to dispel in upcoming blog entries:
  • The Angels struggle against left handed pitchers.

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