Tuesday, October 30, 2007

A-Rod Sweepstakes Begins

Yankee third baseman Alex Rodriguez has declared his intent to opt out of his contract and become a free agent.

Let the A-Rod sweepstakes begin...

...And the many questions surrounding A-Rod and the Angels.

Why the Angels should get A-Rod.

He's young, healthy and one of the best players in the game. Over the past 10 years, he has averaged 45 home runs, 126 rbi and had a .302 batting average. He's above-average defensively and has 15+ steals annually. The 1-2 punch of Vladimir Guerrero and A-Rod would rival the Red Sox combination of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz.

Where would A-Rod fit in the line up?

He would play 3rd Base, turning Chone Figgins back into an utility player. The same Chone Figgins who hit .330 for the Halos last year. It would potentially put Figgins on the trading block.

Why the Angels should NOT sign A-Rod.

Arte Moreno had already said that he doesn't think paying one player that much money ($30 million per season) is a good business decision. In addition, the length of the contract A-Rod is seeking, reportedly ten years, makes it a risky deal.

Why the Angels might surprise their fans and sign A-Rod.

They have a new general manager. New general managers like to make a splash and this would be a big one. Signing Barry Bonds would also be a big splash without committing long term money.

Has A-Rod made teams better in the past?

Yes, but not how you think. In 2001, A-Rod signed with Texas. They went from winning 71 games in 2000 to winning 73 games in 2001. A 2 game improvement. In 2004, he was traded to the Yankees, where they matched their win total of 101 from the previous year. So in the two instances of A-Rod switching teams, his new team has averaged one more win per year.

In A-Rod's last year in Seattle, the Mariners won 91 games. The next year without A-Rod, they won 116 games. A 25 game improvement! The same thing happened in Texas. In his final year as a Ranger, they had 71 wins. Their first year without him, they won 87. A 16 game improvement. Put your money on the Yankees next year if he leaves.

Will Angels fans be willing to pay for A-Rod?

The extra $30 million for A-Rod's contract has to come from somewhere. And the easiest place to get it right now is ticket revenue. Angel Stadium is already near capacity so selling more tickets isn't really an option. Unfortunately, ticket prices would have to be raised.

The Angels sold 3,365,632 tickets last season. If you divide $30,000,000 by 3,365,632, you get $8.91. In other words every ticket would have to be raised almost $9 to cover A-Rod's contract. Is that worth it to Angels fans?

Who is a more likely fit for A-Rod?

The Dodgers. Their grip on the L.A. market is weakening. It's still a Dodger town, but they don't have the Lakers/Clippers dominance that they used to.

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