A-Rod Sweepstakes Begins

Yankee third baseman Alex Rodriguez has declared his intent to opt out of his contract and become a free agent.

Let the A-Rod sweepstakes begin...

...And the many questions surrounding A-Rod and the Angels.

Why the Angels should get A-Rod.

He's young, healthy and one of the best players in the game. Over the past 10 years, he has averaged 45 home runs, 126 rbi and had a .302 batting average. He's above-average defensively and has 15+ steals annually. The 1-2 punch of Vladimir Guerrero and A-Rod would rival the Red Sox combination of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz.

Where would A-Rod fit in the line up?

He would play 3rd Base, turning Chone Figgins back into an utility player. The same Chone Figgins who hit .330 for the Halos last year. It would potentially put Figgins on the trading block.

Why the Angels should NOT sign A-Rod.

Arte Moreno had already said that he doesn't think paying one player that much money ($30 million per season) is a good business decision. In addition, the length of the contract A-Rod is seeking, reportedly ten years, makes it a risky deal.

Why the Angels might surprise their fans and sign A-Rod.

They have a new general manager. New general managers like to make a splash and this would be a big one. Signing Barry Bonds would also be a big splash without committing long term money.

Has A-Rod made teams better in the past?

Yes, but not how you think. In 2001, A-Rod signed with Texas. They went from winning 71 games in 2000 to winning 73 games in 2001. A 2 game improvement. In 2004, he was traded to the Yankees, where they matched their win total of 101 from the previous year. So in the two instances of A-Rod switching teams, his new team has averaged one more win per year.

In A-Rod's last year in Seattle, the Mariners won 91 games. The next year without A-Rod, they won 116 games. A 25 game improvement! The same thing happened in Texas. In his final year as a Ranger, they had 71 wins. Their first year without him, they won 87. A 16 game improvement. Put your money on the Yankees next year if he leaves.

Will Angels fans be willing to pay for A-Rod?

The extra $30 million for A-Rod's contract has to come from somewhere. And the easiest place to get it right now is ticket revenue. Angel Stadium is already near capacity so selling more tickets isn't really an option. Unfortunately, ticket prices would have to be raised.

The Angels sold 3,365,632 tickets last season. If you divide $30,000,000 by 3,365,632, you get $8.91. In other words every ticket would have to be raised almost $9 to cover A-Rod's contract. Is that worth it to Angels fans?

Who is a more likely fit for A-Rod?

The Dodgers. Their grip on the L.A. market is weakening. It's still a Dodger town, but they don't have the Lakers/Clippers dominance that they used to.

Offseason Week In Review - October 28

It's been a quiet week for the Angels as the World Series brings Red Sox Nation to unprecedented levels of arrogance and obnoxious behavior. I guess the Chowdas suffered for years as New York was arrogant and obnoxious and then suddenly Boston beats them and they collectively decide: "Hey, we can be way more wicked awesome obnoxious."

Headlines for the past week (October 22, 2007 - October 28, 2007)

• 2008 Schedule Released
  
• 2008 Spring Training Schedule Released
  
• RP Chris Resop claimed off waivers by Atlanta

2008 Schedule Released

The Angels open on the road in Minnesota before coming back for the home opener against Texas. The Freeway Series is now the Freeway Game as the Angels and Dodgers play only once this year. The Padres are replacing the Dodgers for the remaining two preseason games.

2008 Spring Training Schedule Released

The popularity of Spring Training has really taken off in the past few years. It used to be a couple thousand fans in the sun and now it seems like there are sellouts every game. I suggest catching the Angels in Maryvale or Surprise where the crowds are smaller.

Chris Resop Claimed Off Waivers

Who's Chris Resop? Good question. The Angels got him for Kevin Gregg last season from Florida. Resop was up with the Angels for a couple of weeks in July and made 4 appearances. He had no record with an era of 4.15. At AAA-Salt Lake, he was 1-3 with a 4.57 era. Resop injured his pitching elbow in July and did not pitch the rest of the year. He has since had surgery and completed rehabilitation.

Previous Off-Season Week In Review
October 21, 2007

5 Year Anniversary

It's hard for me to believe, but today is the 5th year anniversary of the Angels 4-1 victory in Game 7. Recap of Game 7.

Arm switching controversy continues.

As the season ended just weeks ago the not much was heard about the less publicized arm switching controversy, but there are reports that it is starting up again. Sources tell us here at Rallymonkey.com that ex-GM Stoneman knew about the surgery through an "acquaintance" and that he himself might of been the very first recipient when he attempted to revive his career before heading to the Offices of the Expo's. Stay tuned for more on this breaking story.

Angels groundskeepers to hold annual canned food drive

Here is an opportunity for anyone to take batting practice on the actual field at Anaheim Stadium.

The Angels Groundskeepers will be holding their 7th annual Thanksgiving Holiday Canned Food Drive on Friday, November 16th thru Sunday, November 18th at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Hours for the food drive will be 8 AM - 5 PM. Participants can enter Angel Stadium through Gate #1.

Fans will have the opportunity to step up to the plate at Angel Stadium and take a swing for the fences. Donations of two cans of food will be good for one swing against a pitching machine with a maximum of 20 pitches per participant. Fans may also donate $2 per pitch as well. Speed pitch machines will also be set up in the bullpens giving fans the opportunity to test their pitching skills for a donation of one canned food item or $1 per pitch. Additionally, fans will have the opportunity to shag fly balls in the outfield for a donation of $25 for 15 minutes. The Angels will provide bats, balls and helmets.

All proceeds will benefit the Second Harvest Food Bank of Orange County in the fight against hunger during the holiday season. Those who are unable to attend but would still like to make a monetary donation, may send checks to: Second Harvest Food Bank, 426-A West Almond, Orange, CA 92866 or visit their website at www.feedoc.org

2008 Angels Spring Training Schedule Announced

The Angels return to Tempe next February for Spring Training.

Here is the tentative schedule (updated 2/2/08)

2/28 vs Texas (Tempe) 12:05 PM
2/29 at Texas (Surprise) 12:05 PM
3/1 vs Cubs (Tempe) 12:05 PM
3/2 at Milwaukee (Maryvale) 12:05 PM
3/3 vs Oakland (Tempe) 12:05 PM
3/4 at White Sox (Tucson) 12:05 PM
3/5 at Seattle (Peoria) 12:05 PM
3/6 vs San Francisco (Tempe) 12:05 PM
3/7 vs White Sox (Tempe) 12:05 PM
3/8 vs San Francisco(SS) (Tempe) 12:05 PM
3/8 at Colorado(SS) (Tucson) 12:05 PM
3/9 vs Texas (Tempe) 1:05 PM
3/10 vs Oakland (Tempe) 1:05 PM
3/11 at San Diego (Peoria) 1:05 PM
3/12 vs Kansas City (Tempe) 1:05 PM
3/13 at Kansas City (Surprise) 1:05pm
3/14 at Chicago Cubs (Mesa) 1:05 PM
3/15 vs Arizona (Tempe) 1:05 PM
3/16 at Chicago Cubs(SS) (Mesa) 1:05 PM
3/16 at San Francisco(SS) (Scottsdale) 1:05 PM
3/17 -- OFF-DAY
3/18 vs Milwaukee (Tempe) 1:05 PM
3/19 at Oakland (Phoenix) 12:05 PM
3/20 vs San Francisco (Tempe) 1:05 PM
3/21 at Texas (Surprise) 6:05 PM
3/22 at Dodgers (Phoenix) 1:05 PM
3/23 vs Seattle (Tempe) 1:05 PM
3/24 vs San Diego (Tempe) 1:05 PM
3/25 at Arizona (Tucson) 1:05 PM
3/26 vs Chicago Cubs (Tempe) 1:05 PM
3/27 vs Colorado(SS) (Tempe) 12:05 PM
3/27 vs Los Angeles(SS) (Angel Stadium) 7:05 PM
3/28 at San Diego (Petco Park) 7:05 PM
3/29 vs San Diego (Angel Stadium) 6:05 PM

(ss) means split-squad. 1/2 of the team goes to each game. If there is a home split squad game and a road split squad game, expect to see the better players play at home.

2008 Angels Schedule Released

The Angels will open the season in Minnesota in 2008 with the home opener coming April 4th against Texas. The Angels also finish the season at home against Texas.

The Mets, Braves and Dodgers will visit Anaheim during interleague play. The Angels will play at the Dodgers, Phillies and Nationals as well.

Here's a look at the tentative schedule

March 31 - April 3 at Minnesota
April 4 - 6 Texas
April 7 - 9 Cleveland
April 11 - 13 at Seattle
April 14 - 15 at Texas
April 16 - 17 Kansas City
April 18 - 20 Seattle
April 22 - 24 at Boston
April 25 - 27 at Detroit
April 28 - May 1 Oakland

May 2 - 4 Baltimore
May 5 - 7 at Kansas City
May 9 - 11 at Tampa Bay
May 12 - 15 Chicago
May 16 - 18 Dodgers (interleague)
May 20 - 22 at Toronto
May 23 - 25 at Chicago
May 26 - 28 Detroit
May 30 - June 1 Toronto

June 2-4 at Seattle
June 6-8 at Oakland
June 9-11 Tampa Bay
June 13-15 Atlanta (interleague)
June 16-18 NY Mets (interleague)
June 20-22 at Philadelphia (interleague)
June 23-25 at Washington (interleague)
June 27-29 at Dodgers (interleague)
June 30 - July 2 Oakland

July 4-6 Toronto
July 7-10 at Texas
July 11-13 at Oakland
July 18-20 Boston
July 21-23 Cleveland
July 25-27 at Baltimore
July 28-30 at Boston
July 31 - August 3 at New York

August 4-6 Baltimore
August 8-10 New York
August 12-13 Seattle
August 15-17 at Cleveland
August 18-20 at Tampa Bay
August 21-24 Minnesota
August 25-27 Oakland
August 28-31 Texas

September 2-4 at Detroit
September 5-7 at Chicago
September 8-10 New York
September 11-14 Seattle
September 16-18 at Oakland
September 19-21 at Texas
September 22-25 at Seattle
September 26-28 Texas

Offseason Week In Review - October 21

Headlines for the past week (October 15, 2007 - October 21, 2007)

• Stoneman Resigns
• Reagins Introduced as new GM
• Paul Byrd accused of HGH use while with Angels
  

Stoneman Resigns

The first big move of the offseason was made Tuesday as the Angels general manager, Bill Stoneman, resigned. Stoneman cited lack of energy as a primary reason for resigning. He is going to stay with the organization as a consultant to Arte Moreno.

Stoneman spent eight years as the Angels general manager including the team's only World Series title in 2002. He was responsible for bringing big free agents like Vladimir Guerrero and Bartolo Colon to the team as well as keeping homegrown talent (John Lackey, Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields, Howie Kendrick, Casey Kotchman) around.

Reagins Introduced As New General Manager

Tony Reagins was introduced as the man to replace Bill Stoneman as general manager of the Angels. Reagins was currently the Director of Player Development for the past six seasons for the Angels.

A former media intern, Reagins worked his way up the ladder in the Angels organization.

What remains to be seen is who has the power? Reagins, Scioscia or Morneo?

Ex-Angel Paul Byrd Accused Of HGH use

Indians pitcher Paul Byrd was accused of ordering human growth hormone from 2002-2005. Byrd did not deny taking the drug. Rather, he said that major league baseball knew of his prescription and permitted him to take it. He pitched for the Angels in 2005.

Bill Stoneman era over in the OC?

Bill Stoneman, who built the Angels' only World Series championship team, presiding over the most successful period in franchise history, is expected to step down after eight years as general manager.

Stoneman's eight-year tenure as Angels GM is the longest since the franchise's first GM, Fred Haney, held the position for the Angels' first eight seasons. Though he was often criticized for a reluctance to make trades, the Angels had four 90-win seasons, made the playoffs four of the past six years, won the division three of the past four and became World Series champions for the first time in franchise history in 2002 during Stoneman's tenure.

The Angels have called a news conference for Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. to make what is billed as "a major announcement." The Angels would not comment on the record but indications are the announcement will be Stoneman's decision to step down as GM after eight years and move into a consultant's role with the team.

"It's going to be a baseball operations-related press conference," Angels spokesman Tim Mead said.

Multiple reports said Stoneman will remain with the organization as a consultant.
The Los Angeles Times reported on its Web site that Tony Reagins, the Angels' director of player development, is expected to become the new GM.

Los Angeles won its third AL West title in four years this season, but was swept out of the playoffs in three games by the Red Sox in the division series. The closest the Angels have come to returning to the World Series was in 2005, when they lost to the Chi Sox in the AL Championship Series. Angel fans won't easily forget the AJ Pierzinski-Doug Eddings-Josh Paul incident.

The Angels have made the postseason only seven times in their 47-year history, and four of those appearances came after Stoneman became their GM in the winter of 1999. After not reaching the playoffs since 1986, the Angels earned a postseason berth as a wild card in 2002 and beat the New York Yankees and Twins in the AL playoffs before defeating the Giants in seven games to win the World Series.

Stoneman, 63, was hired after the 1999 season. When Arte Moreno purchased the team in May 2003, Stoneman was given a contract extension. That contract ended with the 2007 season but included a mutual option for Stoneman to either continue as GM or step into a consultant's role.

Reagins, 40, is a 1991 graduate of Cal State Fullerton who has been working in the Angels' organization since 1992. He started as an intern in baseball operations and the marketing department then spent four years as the Angels' manager of baseball operations before being promoted to director of player development six years ago. Abe Flores is currently the Angels' manager of baseball operations and would be in line to replace Reagins as director of player development.

Under Reagins' direction, the Angels' minor-league system has become one of the most well-stocked and well-respected in baseball. Fifteen of the 25 players on the Angels' playoff roster against the Boston Red Sox were products of the team's farm system, the most homegrown players among the eight teams that qualified for postseason play this season.

Stoneman's decision to step aside -- and Moreno's apparent decision to promote Reagins -- leaves the Angels with a rookie general manager at the start of an off-season in which Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds could provide big-name options in the seemingly annual quest for a big bat.

Reading the Articles

Ok it has been a few days now since the Halo’s were eliminated. I had a few phone calls and another few conversations with some of the people I work with on my feelings on what happened with the Halo’s. Well here they are. I did not read anything about the team tell this morning. Why? Was I depressed? Angry? Hoping it was all a bad dream? No is the simple answer. I just did not want to read or listen to people bash Scioscia and the Angels players. T.J. Simers, Bill Plashke of the LA Times make me just… well I don’t know how to even explain it.

Are they fans? Probably not. They came from towns far far away. T.J. Simers attended Northern Illinois University in DeKalb, Ill. Bill Plaschke was born in Louisville, Ky., and worked in Fort Lauderdale and Seattle before joining the Los Angeles Times in 1987. They write the articles they write not as viewers telling you what you may not know or have not heard yet, but they write articles to make noise. Cause a stir. They may watch the game; they may even enjoy the game. But do they root for the Halo’s. Do they watch with regularity? No is my guess because after reading some of their articles they seem to be going for the flash and show.

In TJ Simers article, he talks about Scioscia blowing it. “Two weeks ago Sunday, the Angels, Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians each had 92 wins, the Angels clinching and soaking themselves with champagne after securing a playoff berth.’ ’ Six games to play, time to go all out to give themselves the best chance of winning it all, and they proved my point -- unable to play their game effectively on the road, they couldn't even take advantage of a schedule calling for them to play against down-and-out teams in Texas and Oakland.” Ok this is a snippet of the article but all he does is say how Mike screwed up by not playing everyone like they were fighting for their lives. But I know for a fact that he could not have watched the team over the past month or else he would of realized we not only limped into the playoffs mostly on the backs of Seattle’s poor play, but we did it with a team that hardly looked like the team that won the first 80 or so games.

Yes we were hurt. Is that an excuse? No not from me, or from Scioscia but it is a fact we were hurt. We got our asses handed to us by a better team. Would home field have helped? Maybe, who knows? From GA’s eye, Vlad’s arm, the total absence of Mathews and the bullpen that had blown up over the second half of the year no wonder we got shelled.

Game two should have been ours. From the called strike that was a foot out on Kendrick that should have been ball four, to the catch made by the Boston owners son out of the glove of Mathis. We should have had that game. But Manny came through for them. That’s was a shame but shit happens.

Now Plaschke he is selling himself for more TV time and he now writes just to do that, sell himself. He is a TV whore. So I will not go into his nonsense except to say that Vlad did not choke like A Rod. He could not. A Rod played healthy, not happy but at least healthy. Vlad seemed to be happy but not healthy, probably not happy about loosing but just happy to be where he is at this point in his life. The comparison is not even close. So just remember if you read the LA Times just take it with a grain of salt, or a bag. They are trying to sell newspapers and become TV stars on ESPN. I do not know how to end this article except to say things are going to be interesting this fall and winter with free agents and the what if with A Rod. The team could look very much the same next season or it could be totally revamped. Stoneman could turn some heads this off-season.

ALDS Excuses

Fielding questions about the Angels' loss in the ALDS...

The Angels need a big bat.

True. If you think about it, there are probably 30 teams in baseball who would like an additional "big bat". In this series, I don't think one big bat wouldn't have been enough, unless that bat was Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz. The "big bat" every Angel fan talks about is Alex Rodriguez. He would've been no help. In three playoff games this season, he has two singles.

The Red Sox own the Angels.

For many years, the Yankees absolutely owned the Red Sox. I think we're seeing that now with the Red Sox owning the Angels. There is no good explanation for it. The Sox are just a thorn in the Angels side. The same might be said about the Angels owning the Yankees.

Scioscia should have tried for homefield advantage.

False. Didn't you see how banged up the Angels were? Matthews couldn't even be on the postseason roster. Vlad was hobbled. There was no reason for Scioscia to push these guys to try and get home field advantage. Plus, in the past several seasons, the team with home field advantage has lost a majority of the series.

Stoneman should have made some trades.

The Atlanta Braves traded their future for Mark Teixeira. Are the Braves in the postseason? No. Did they even qualify for the playoffs? No. Did their record improve with Teixeira? No. (.523 pre-trade, .509 after trade.)

Dice-K vs Escobar

The Angels have never faced Dice-K, so there are no batter-pitcher reports there.  Likewise, the Red Sox did not face Kelvim Escobar this year.  Escobar has seen the Red Sox many times in his past and has fared pretty well.

Escobar as an Angel against Boston

YEAR G GS   IP W-L ER   ERA
2004 1  1  6.0 0-1  3  4.50
2005 2  1  7.2 0-0  0  0.00
2006 2  2 14.0 1-1  7  4.50
2007 0  0  0.0 0-0  0  0.00
Tot  5  4 27.2 1-2 10  3.26

In 2006, Escobar made two starts against the Red Sox.  He won his start at Boston (2 er in 6.0 ip) and lost at home (5 er in 8.0 ip).

In 2005, Escobar made one start at Fenway and allowed only 1 unearned run in 6 innings and received a no decision.

In 2004, Escobar pitched once against the Sox at Fenway and lost giving up 3 er in 6 ip.


Dice-K at Fenway

14 career starts
8-4 record
4.86 era
1.34 whip
.266 baa


Kelvim Escobar at Fenway

21 careerappearances
7 career starts
4-3 record
4.30 era
1.40 whip
.238 baa

Red Sox vs Kelvim Escobar (career)
           H/AB HR   AVG   OPS
Crisp      5/14  0  .357  .971
Drew       1/5   0  .200  .533
Lowell     5/15  0  .333  .733
Lugo       4/7   1  .571 1.600
Ortiz      4/24  1  .167  .551
Pedroia    0/4   0  .000  .000
Ramirez    7/32  1  .219  .748
Varitek    7/21  0  .333  .833
Youkilis   1/6   0  .167  .333

Magic

I remember back in 2002 I was working at a bad job, but a job that let me watch my Angels on TV. Funny thing was I had just moved to the Bay Area and even though I was a few hundred miles away from Anaheim I knew that there was something special going on. I could feel it from before they clinched a playoff spot. I watched them in Oakland as they beat the A’s just before the playoffs started. And when the playoffs did start I just knew it was magical. I went out and purchased a 3 inch screen portable TV, (later returned thanks to Target's wonderful return policy) and just knew I would get a lot of use out of it for a month.

Thanks to Scott Spiezio, Adam Kennedy, David Eckstein, Troy Glaus, Garret Anderson, Tim Salmon, Bengie Molina, Troy Percival, Chone Figgins (man he could run), Francisco Rodriguez and others I knew my layaway plan was going to pay off. Magic was in the air.

It was like going into Disneyland as a kid and being in awe of everything. We started with a loss in every one of those playoff series, but I knew we were going to win. And win we did over and over again. Sure there were a few loses sprinkled in, three in the World Series. But even after a lose it was no problem. We had magic.

Before that year we would hear things about the curse that was holding the Halo’s back, it was something to do with an Indian burial ground. I personally think it was due to the 12 or more cups of coffee Perci would drink during a game. JK. But we won and ever since then things have not felt as they did that year.

Was the magic lost with the World Series Championship? No, I do not think so. I still go back to Disneyland and even though I worked there and have seen it in its worst, it is still a magical place. One my five month old will experience this winter. But before then, I also want to think of the magic I feel when I watch the games like I did in 2002, because even though I have been to Disneyland and seen the World Series Trophy, it's still magical and I still think that nothing is going to stop me wishing on a star and believing what I know in my bright Red Angel Fan heart.

It's Just One Game

Yesterday's game was just one loss. Just like the one loss to the Yankees in 2002 or the Twins in 2002 or the Giants in 2002 or the Yankees in 2005.

In fact, in every post season series the Angels have won in their history, they have lost game one.

But this game was different. Not that the Angels had to win, but they had to have a good showing and that was definitely not the case.

I'm not worried about the home field advantage/disadvantage or the Fenway Mystique. I'm worried because the Angels bats seem to have picked up from where they left off two years ago against the White Sox.

In their last five playoff games, the Angels have averaged 1.6 runs per game on 4.8 hits per game. Those numbers aren't going to get you very far.

Hopefully, the Red Sox are taking this day off to bask in the glory of their Halo Domination. Maybe their overconfidence will allow the Angels to steal one tomorrow and then come home and take care of business. Hopefully.

Angels post season results after losing the first game of the series (4 series wins - 2 series losses)

1979 ALCS Angels lose game 1 at Baltimore 6-3 and lose the series 3 games to 1.

2002 ALDS Angels lose game 1 at New York 8-5 and win the series 3 games to 1.

2002 ALCS Angels lose game 1 at Minnesota 2-1 and win the series 4 games to 1.

2002 WS Angels lose game 1 at home to the Giants 4-3 and win the series 4 games to 3.

2004 ALDS Angels lose game 1 at home to the Red Sox 9-3 and lose the series 3 games to 0.

2005 ALDS Angels lose game 1 at home to the Yankees 4-2 and win the series 3 games to 2.

2007 ALDS Angels lose game 1 at Boston 4-0 and...

Angels post season results after winning the first game of the series (0 series wins - 3 series losses)

1982 ALCS Angels win game 1 at home against Milwaukee 8-3 and lose the

1986 ALCS Angels win game 1 at home against Boston 8-1 and lose the series 4 games to 3.

2005 ALCS Angels win game 1 at Chicago and lose the series 4 games to 1.

Good Grief, Not Another Complete Game

Add Josh Beckett to the list.

That's now 5 consecutive post season games where the Angels have not seen a reliever.

Beckett only threw one complete game all season and it was an 8-inning 1-0 loss at Cleveland.

Daisuke Matsuzaka starts in Game 2 of the series on Friday. He too has only thrown one complete game this season. Does he dare be the pitcher who breaks the streak?

I'm not sure what to think. I'm not ready to jump off the bridge and call Mike Scioscia the Marty Schottenheimer of baseball, but unless they show some offensive signs of life on Friday, the powers behind "Angel Baseball" might want to revamp the blueprint.

Consecutive post season complete games thrown against the Angels

Josh Beckett 10/3/07 - Boston 4, Angels 0
Jose Contreras 10/16/05 - White Sox 6, Angels 3
Freddy Garcia 10/15/05 - White Sox 8, Angels 2
Jon Garland 10/14/05 - White Sox 5, Angels 2
Mark Buehrle 10/12/05 - White Sox 2, Angels 1

In the 5 games the Angels have a total of 24 hits - 4.8 per game.

Game 1 Batter vs Pitcher Breakdown

Josh Beckett at Fenway
34 career starts
16-11 record
4.51 era
1.22 whip
.244 baa

Angels vs Josh Beckett (career)
            H/AB HR   AVG    OPS
G.A.        4/10  0  .400  1.100
Cabrera     9/32  1  .281   .667
Figgins     1/8   0  .125   .425
Vlad        5/23  1  .217   .771
Maicer      4/17  0  .235   .572
Howie       3/8   0  .375   .750
Kotchman    1/3   0  .333   .667
Napoli      0/4   0  .000   .000
Willits     0/2   0  .000   .000
Rivera      1/10  0  .100   .350

John Lackey at Fenway

7 career starts
1-4 record
7.46 era
2.03 whip
.362 baa

Red Sox vs John Lackey (career)
            H/AB HR   AVG    OPS
Crisp       4/22  2  .182   .705
Drew        5/11  0  .455  1.227
Lowell      3/12  0  .250   .500
Lugo        4/18  0  .222   .578
Ortiz      10/26  2  .385  1.274
Pedroia      2/6  0  .333   .833
Ramirez    10/23  4  .435  1.668
Varitek     5/18  0  .278   .825
Youkilis    3/10  0  .300   .600

Everything "They" tell you about the playoffs is wrong

The baseball postseason is like no other sport. What might be true in the NFL, NBA or NHL playoffs is not true in baseball. It is it's own beast. Any team really can win. So here are three things the media tell you that are statistically wrong.

1. The best teams have the best chance of winning the World Series.

I wrote about this back in early August (link) and found that regular season record has absolutely no bearing on postseason success. In the Wild Card era, 18 teams have finished with 100 wins or more during the regular season and only one of them (1998 Yankees) won the World Series. Incredibly two teams with less than 90 wins have won the World Series - 2006 Cardinals (83-78) and the 2000 Yankees (87-74).

 Wins     Teams     Titles Percent
100-116     17        1         5.9%
95-99       31        4        12.9%
90-94       25        4        16.0%
82-89       15        2        13.3%

2. Home field advantage is an advantage.

I wrote about this last week (link). I researched the past 8 years (56 series) and found that the home team wins only 45% of the series. I only researched 8 years because prior to that the Division Sereies had a 3-2 format instead of the 2-2-1 format.

Records of Teams with Home Field Advantage
2006 1-6 .143 (Home team won 1 series and lost 6)
2005 5-2 .714
2004 4-3 .571
2003 2-5 .286
2002 1-6 .143
2001 5-2 .714
2000 3-4 .429
1999 4-3 .571
Tot 25-31 .446

3. To win it all you have to have momentum.

I just researched this back to 1999. 56 series should be enough to get some decent data. Momentum is hard to quantify, but I decided to use the team's record in their last 10 games heading into the playoffs. It's a stat we're all familiar with which makes it as good as any other.

2007 Records (Last 10) of playoff teams

BOS 6-4
NYY 6-4
CLE 6-4
LAA 4-6

COL 9-1
PHI 7-3
CHC 6-4
ARI 5-5
SDG 4-6

Either Colorado or San Diego will be eliminated later today.

The average post season team enters the postseason going 6-4 in their past 10 games. In the past 8 seasons 15 teams have gone 6-4 while 25 teams have been better and 24 teams have been worse. If you believe in momentum the numbers should surprise you.

Last 10	Teams	Series Wins	WS Titles
7-3 or better	25	22-21 (.512)	4
6-4	15	12-15 (.444)	0
5-5 or worse	24	22-20 (524)	4

Looking at it, there is no bearing on World Series titles or series wins based on momentum. Here's the chart broken down a bit further.

Last 10	Teams	Series Wins	WS Titles
9-1	3	3-3 (.500)	0
8-2	11	8-10 (.444)	1
7-3	11	11-8 (.579)	3
6-4	15	12-15 (.444)	0
5-5	13	10-12 (.455)	1
4-6	8	6-7 (.462)	1
3-7	2	3-1 (.750)	1
2-8	1	3-0 (1.000)	1

I'm not trying to say that you want to finish 7-3 like the Phillies. The point here is that momentum has no bearing on winning the World Series.

Regular season record, home field advantage and momentum are all myths when it comes to the baseball playoffs. The truth is every team has a 1 in 8 chance of winning it.

I'm not trying to explain why baseball is like this; I'm just saying that if you look at the history of the playoffs, it's anybody's game.

ALDS Times Set

The ALDS playoff times have just been announced. Times are local to Anaheim.

Wed Oct 3 at Boston 3:30 tbs
John Lackey vs Josh Beckett

Fri Oct 5 at Boston 5:30 tbs
Kelvim Escobar vs Daisuke Matsuzaka

Sun Oct 7 vs Boston (Home game #1) Noon tbs
Jered Weaver vs Curt Schilling

Mon Oct 8 vs Boston (Home Game #2) (if necessary) 6:30 tbs
Pitchers tba - the team down 2-1 (if not both teams) will probably use their Game #1 starter.

Wed Oct 10 at Boston (if necessary) 5:30 tbs
Pitchers tba

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Yankees @ Indians
1 NYY @ CLE Thu 4 3:30 pm tbs
2 NYY @ CLE Fri 5 5:30pm tbs
3 CLE @ NYY Sun 7 Noon tbs
4 CLE @ NYY Mon 8 6:30pm tbs
5 NYY @ CLE Wed 10 5:30pm tbs

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ALCS
Fri Oct 12 Game 1 5:00pm FOX
Sat Oct 13 Game 2 5:00pm FOX

Mon Oct 15 Game 3 1:00pm FOX
Tue Oct 16 Game 4 5:00pm FOX
Thu Oct 18 Game 5 5:00pm FOX

Sat Oct 20 Game 6 1:00pm or 5:00pm FOX
Sun Oct 21 Game 7 5:00pm FOX

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World Series

Wed Oct 24 Game 1 5:00pm FOX
Thu Oct 25 Game 2 5:00pm FOX

Sat Oct 27 Game 3 5:00pm FOX
Sun Oct 28 Game 4 5:00pm FOX
Mon Oct 29 Game 5 5:00pm FOX

Wed Oct 31 Game 6 5:00pm FOX
Thu Nov 1 Game 7 5:00pm FOX