Saturday, June 30, 2007

All Star Team Predictions - Saturday June 30, 2007

Here goes nothing. I'm going to try and pick the American League All-Star Team. The real team will be announced tomorrow (Sunday) at 1:00pm on TBS. I'm picking 31 players, just like manager Jim Leyland of the Tigers. The 32nd player is voted in by the fans.

I'm planning on selecting 12 pitchers and 19 hitters and making sure that I have one player from each team.

Here's my game plan:
1. Figure out which teams will only send one player and pick that player.
2. Fill in the team based on statistics
3. Fill out the roster based on positional needs.
4. Check to see how I did.

1. Figure out which teams will only send one player and pick that player.

I think that I've narrowed it down to seven teams who will only have one player.

AL East

Boston & New York will have multiple players.

Toronto - The Blue Jays will probably only get one All Star and that will be between Roy Halladay and right fielder Alex Rios. Halladay has a shiny Win-Loss Record (9-2) but an average era (4.25). Rios leads the team in everything - avg .291, hr 17, rbi 45, runs 57, sb 7. Rios is one of the best young players in the game (only 26), but I think the choice will be Halladay due in part to his outstanding career.

Baltimore - With Miguel Tejada injured, the Orioles will be represented by second baseman Brian Roberts. Roberts is hitting .324 and has stolen 25 bags this year.

Tampa Bay - The Devil Rays will not be represented by a pitcher. That much is sure. There are three hitters which could be considered - 1B Carlos Pena, 2B BJ Upton and 3B Brendan Harris. This is a touch choice. Pena (.281 avg, 17 hr, 45 rbi) plays 1st Base and there are a few more deserving than he. Upton (.320 avg, 9 hr, 13 sb) is currently on a rehab assignment in single A. Harris (.320 avg, 8 hr, 34 rbi) might be the choice, but he is too young to be getting the benefit of the doubt. I'll regret it later, but I'm picking Pena.

Cleveland, Detroit and Minnesota - multiple players

Chicago - Wow are they having a bad year. Not one player is hitting above .270. Not one pitcher has above 5 wins. The White Sox lone representative will be relief pitcher Bobby Jenks (20 saves, 2.93 era).

Kansas City - The Royals are tough to pick. No starting pitcher has over 5 wins and their closer has only 10 saves. So, it looks like we need a hitter. The choice will be made between right fielder Mark Teahen (.289 avg, 5 hr, 42 rbi), center fielder David DeJesus (.280 avg, 58 runs) and catcher John Buck (.249 avg, 14 hr, 28 rbi). There really isn't an All-Star among this bunch, so I'm taking the Royals Vice President of Baseball Operations, George Brett and counting him as a designated hitter.

Angels & Seattle - multiple players

Oakland - Despite their winning record, the A's are a one horse town. And Dan Haren is that horse. He's 9-2 on the season with an era of 1.91.

Texas - Let me start by eliminating any pitchers. Well, despite my dislike of the Dodgers, I have to admit, Eric Gagne is having quite a season for the Rangers. In 23 appearances he is 2-0 with 8 saves and an era of 1.23. Impressive, but probably not enough for the All-Star team. Mark Teixeira is the man. He's hitting .302 with 12 home runs and 41 rbi.

After sorting through the seven teams with one selection only, here is my team.

SP TOR Roy Halladay
SP OAK Dan Haren
RP CWS Bobby Jenks

1B TB Carlos Pena
2B BAL Brian Roberts
1B TEX Mark Teixeira
DH KC George Brett (or Teahen or DeJesus)

2. Fill in the team based on statistics

Seven teams still need to be represented to fill the remaining 24 spots. To fill these spots, I'm now going to look at the statistical leaders from various categories.


AVG Top 5 (The Grand Daddy of player evaluation)
.375 M.Ordonez
.364 I.Suzuki
.340 D.Jeter
.339 O.Cabrera
.339 J.Posada

In - All 5.

OPS Top 5 (The new kid on the block)
1.127 A.Rodriguez
1.079 M.Ordonez
1.004 D.Ortiz
.988 V.Guerrero
.959 M.Teixeira

In - All 5. Would you rather have the top 5 AVG or top 5 OPS?

HR Top 5
28 A.Rodriguez
20 J.Morneau
18 G.Sheffield
17 T.Hunter
17 C.Pena
17 A.Rios

In - Right now, just the top 5. Sorry Rios. Morneau was the MVP last year so this year's .281 average is still enough to get him on the team. 60 rbis don't hurt either. Hunter is batting .308 and has 63 rbi.

RBI Top 5 (A category I don't like)
79 A.Rodriguez
71 V.Guerrero
68 M.Ordonez
63 V.Martinez
63 T.Hunter

In - All 5.

ERA Top 5
1.91 D.Haren
2.76 J.Santana
2.99 J.Lackey
3.07 J.Beckett
3.14 C.Gaudin

In - Top 4. Gaudin's win/loss record is only 6-3.


Wins Top 5 (A category I really don't like)
11-2 C.Sabathia
11-1 J.Beckett
10-5 J.Lackey
9-2 D.Haren
9-2 R.Halladay
9-3 J.Verlander
9-3 K.Escobar
9-5 D.Matsuzaka
9-6 J.Santana

In - All except Escobar. Call it the East Coast bias from a west coast fan. Or, the sad truth, there are more marketing opportunities in Boston and Japan compared to Venezuela and Los Angels of Anaheim.


Saves Top 5 (era)
23 F.Rodriguez (2.36)
23 J.Putz (0.95)
22 J.Borowski (5.70)
20 B.Jenks (2.93)
19 J.Papelbon (1.50)
19 T.Jones (6.03)

In - Those with respectable eras. Sorry Borowski and Jones.

After checking the major statistical categories, my All-Star team is taking shape. I have 12 pitchers which was my goal to start with. It could be argued that I have no love for the setup man, but neither do the All-Star managers usually. Plus, tell me who to replace on that pitching staff, it's stacked.

SP TOR Roy Halladay
SP OAK Dan Haren
SP MIN Johan Santana
SP LAA John Lackey
SP BOS Josh Beckett
SP CLE C.C. Sabathia
SP DET Justin Verlander
SP BOS Daisuke Matsuzaka
RP CWS Bobby Jenks
RP SEA J.J. Putz
RP LAA Francisco Rodriguez
RP BOS Jonathon Papelbon

C NYY Jorge Posada
C CLE Victor Martinez
1B TB Carlos Pena
1B TEX Mark Teixeira
1B MIN Justin Morneau
1B BOS David Ortiz
2B BAL Brian Roberts
SS NYY Derek Jeter
SS LAA Orlando Cabrera
3B NYY Alex Rodriguez
DH KC George Brett (or Teahen or DeJesus)

OF DET Magglio Ordonez
OF SEA Ichiro
OF LAA Vladimir Guerrero
OF DET Gary Sheffield
OF MIN Torii Hunter

I have 16 hitters and I need three more to complete my team. I wish I didn't have 4 first basemen, but they're all pretty deserving.

3. Fill out the roster based on positional needs.

I only have one second baseman and one third baseman, so there are two needs. I also only have 5 outfielders, so I could use at least one more.

Second Base - OK, I suppose the problem with my methodology so far, is that I could almost overlook players. Like Placido Polanco. He's not in the top 5 of anything but is having a really solid year with a .332 average and 55 runs scored. He might even be a better candidate to start than Brian Roberts who was picked earlier since I knew the Orioles would only get one selection.

Third Base - It could be between Brendan Harris (Tampa Bay), Mike Lowell (Boston) and Chone Figgins (Angels). I already excluded Harris due to his age. Figgins gets excluded due to the little known "Tie Goes To The Red Sox" rule. Also known as the "Tie Goes To The Yankee" rule. Also known as the "ESPN Controls Everything" rule.

Outfield - Usually the easiest position to select due to the big offensive numbers put up by outfielders. Can you believe there are only 6 AL outfielders hitting over .300? Ordonez, Ichiro, Reggie Willits, Guererro, Hunter and Kenny Lofton.

I'm a big OPS fan, so maybe that will sort my mess out. Ordonez, Guerrero, Sheffield and Hunter lead the way and they're already on the team. Next up are Curtis Granderson (.287, 10 hr, 57 runs), Ichiro, Grady Sizemore (.279, 13 hr, 66 runs), Manny Ramirez (.290, 11 hr, 43 rbi) and Rios (.291, 17hr, 57 runs). The stats narrow it down to Manny and Rios. And in a surprising repeal of the "Tie Goes To The Red Sox" rule, I'm picking Rios.

I have my 31 players (starters have an asterisk) and here they are...

SP TOR Roy Halladay
SP OAK Dan Haren*
SP MIN Johan Santana
SP LAA John Lackey
SP BOS Josh Beckett
SP CLE C.C. Sabathia
SP DET Justin Verlander
SP BOS Daisuke Matsuzaka
RP CWS Bobby Jenks
RP SEA J.J. Putz
RP LAA Francisco Rodriguez
RP BOS Jonathon Papelbon

C NYY Jorge Posada*
C CLE Victor Martinez
1B TB Carlos Pena
1B TEX Mark Teixeira
1B MIN Justin Morneau
1B BOS David Ortiz*
2B DET Placido Polanco*
2B BAL Brian Roberts
SS NYY Derek Jeter*
SS LAA Orlando Cabrera
3B NYY Alex Rodriguez*
3B BOS Mike Lowell
DH KC George Brett (or Teahen or DeJesus)

OF DET Magglio Ordonez*
OF SEA Ichiro*
OF LAA Vladimir Guerrero*
OF DET Gary Sheffield
OF MIN Torii Hunter
OF TOR Alex Rios

4. Check to see how I did.

My original plan was to go back and check to see if I made any errors. Well, I'm too tired to look at more stats. Where's my bench coach when I need him?

No comments: